今天報紙頭條都是昨天電視辯論的一些評論，整體而言，都相信執政的自由黨被保守黨打敗，目前支持率已經落後超過10個百分點(39% vs. 27% ) ，保守黨往超過半數邁進。
即使是魁北克省，這個最趨向獨立的省，保守黨也領先自由黨，不過仍然落後魁北克獨立黨。
根據報紙的分析，最主要的原因在於自由黨的信用遭受懷疑，而且運用攻擊保守黨的策略也得不到選民認同，因為上次選舉已經用過了，招式用老，選舉沒有新的主意，也表示執政後不會有新的做法。過去選民對保守黨有顧慮，懷疑上任後會削減公共支出，對富人減稅，並與美國的共和黨合作，現在，選民的想法變了，願意接受保守黨執政。
看來加拿大可能會有新的執政黨。
(Toronto Star) Tories head for majority
Poll shows `breakthrough' for party
`Significant growth' in Ontario, Quebec
`Significant growth' in Ontario, Quebec
Jan. 10, 2006. 06:28 AM
RICHARD BRENNAN
QUEEN'S PARK BUREAU
Conservatives are charting a course toward a majority on Jan. 23, according to a new national poll completed yesterday.
The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Toronto Star and La Presse, shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives have sailed into majority government territory after a stunning week of rising popularity, largely at the expense of the Liberal party.
The EKOS survey of 1,240 Canadians through the weekend and yesterday found 39.1 per cent support for the Conservatives. The Liberals had 26.8 per cent support; the NDP 16.2 per cent; the Bloc Québécois 12.6 per cent; and Green party 4.6 per cent.
"This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for," EKOS president Frank Graves said.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have widened the gap to a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Of the 518 Ontarians surveyed, 43.8 per cent supported the Tories, 33.5 per cent the Liberals, 16.2 per cent the NDP, and 5.4 per cent the Greens.
Even in Quebec, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals. A total of 330 people were surveyed in that province and 19.1 per cent threw their support behind the Tories, compared with 17.4 per cent for the Liberals.
The Bloc, however, remains miles ahead with 52.4 per cent.
"The Conservatives' gains are nationwide, but their most significant growth is in Ontario, where they have surpassed the Liberals in their traditional heartland, and in Quebec, where they are now the leading federalist alternative to the Bloc Québécois," Graves said.
The national poll numbers are considered accurate within 2.8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The margin of error in Ontario was 4.3 percentage points.
EKOS's Paul Adams said Harper's popularity is driving the surge. When those surveyed were asked who had the most positive vision for the future, the Conservative leader received 32 per cent support. Prime Minister Paul Martin had 20 per cent, the NDP's Jack Layton 16 per cent, and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe 10 per cent. "None of the above" registered 10 per cent and 12 per cent said they didn't know.
But premature talk of winning a majority of Parliament's 308 seats spooks the Conservatives. A party would have to win 155 seats to win a majority.
At dissolution, there were 133 Liberals in the House of Commons. The Tories held 98 seats, the Bloc Québécois 53 and the NDP 18. There were four Independents and two vacancies.
"I'm certainly not going to be drawn into any questions that can be used to have me making predictions," Harper said during last night's English-language leaders' debate.
"My role here is not to be a political analyst. My role here is to explain to Canadians why we need a new government."
Following stories Sunday in the Star and the Toronto Sun about Harper hinting at a majority, right-wing blogs were abuzz with dark — and unsubstantiated — suggestions of a mainstream media conspiracy to stall the Tories' momentum.
Ironically, hours after refusing to rule out a Tory majority win, Harper criticized EKOS by name while chatting with reporters aboard his campaign plane in Hamilton on Saturday.
"They are, in my view, the least believable," he said. "Our people feel the momentum, but it is a statistical dead heat. ... There is over two weeks to go and a lot of things can happen. ... There is no certainty."
Graves said the "wild card" in the campaign now is how Canadians react to the potential of a Harper government — minority or majority.
"What happens when Canadians fully realize the Conservatives' current potential?" Graves asked.
"Will there be a bandwagon effect, as there was for Brian Mulroney in the 1984 campaign after he surged into the lead? Or will Harper succumb to a whiplash as he did in 2004 with many voters recoiling from the prospect of a Tory victory after a serious Liberal onslaught in the last weeks of the campaign."
On June 16, 2004 in Niagara Falls, Harper boasted there were "no safe Liberal seats for the Liberals any more," and said the Tories could win a majority. Less than two weeks later, the Liberals won a minority government.
The Liberals received 36.7 per cent of the popular vote in the June 28, 2004 election. The Conservatives garnered 29.6 per cent of the vote, the NDP 15.7 per cent, the Bloc 12.4 per cent and the Greens 4.3 per cent.
Graves said the apparent Conservative breakthrough in Quebec is "especially astonishing," heralding the possible return of the Tories as a truly national party.
But he warned that because the Harper Conservatives are poised to win some seats in Quebec, the media spotlight will be on the aloof Harper more than ever before. Graves stressed that the party's growth in Quebec is inherently fragile.
With files from Robert Benzie
The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Toronto Star and La Presse, shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives have sailed into majority government territory after a stunning week of rising popularity, largely at the expense of the Liberal party.
The EKOS survey of 1,240 Canadians through the weekend and yesterday found 39.1 per cent support for the Conservatives. The Liberals had 26.8 per cent support; the NDP 16.2 per cent; the Bloc Québécois 12.6 per cent; and Green party 4.6 per cent.
"This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for," EKOS president Frank Graves said.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have widened the gap to a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Of the 518 Ontarians surveyed, 43.8 per cent supported the Tories, 33.5 per cent the Liberals, 16.2 per cent the NDP, and 5.4 per cent the Greens.
Even in Quebec, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals. A total of 330 people were surveyed in that province and 19.1 per cent threw their support behind the Tories, compared with 17.4 per cent for the Liberals.
The Bloc, however, remains miles ahead with 52.4 per cent.
"The Conservatives' gains are nationwide, but their most significant growth is in Ontario, where they have surpassed the Liberals in their traditional heartland, and in Quebec, where they are now the leading federalist alternative to the Bloc Québécois," Graves said.
The national poll numbers are considered accurate within 2.8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The margin of error in Ontario was 4.3 percentage points.
EKOS's Paul Adams said Harper's popularity is driving the surge. When those surveyed were asked who had the most positive vision for the future, the Conservative leader received 32 per cent support. Prime Minister Paul Martin had 20 per cent, the NDP's Jack Layton 16 per cent, and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe 10 per cent. "None of the above" registered 10 per cent and 12 per cent said they didn't know.
But premature talk of winning a majority of Parliament's 308 seats spooks the Conservatives. A party would have to win 155 seats to win a majority.
At dissolution, there were 133 Liberals in the House of Commons. The Tories held 98 seats, the Bloc Québécois 53 and the NDP 18. There were four Independents and two vacancies.
`This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for.' EKOS President Frank Graves |
"I'm certainly not going to be drawn into any questions that can be used to have me making predictions," Harper said during last night's English-language leaders' debate.
"My role here is not to be a political analyst. My role here is to explain to Canadians why we need a new government."
Following stories Sunday in the Star and the Toronto Sun about Harper hinting at a majority, right-wing blogs were abuzz with dark — and unsubstantiated — suggestions of a mainstream media conspiracy to stall the Tories' momentum.
Ironically, hours after refusing to rule out a Tory majority win, Harper criticized EKOS by name while chatting with reporters aboard his campaign plane in Hamilton on Saturday.
"They are, in my view, the least believable," he said. "Our people feel the momentum, but it is a statistical dead heat. ... There is over two weeks to go and a lot of things can happen. ... There is no certainty."
Graves said the "wild card" in the campaign now is how Canadians react to the potential of a Harper government — minority or majority.
"What happens when Canadians fully realize the Conservatives' current potential?" Graves asked.
"Will there be a bandwagon effect, as there was for Brian Mulroney in the 1984 campaign after he surged into the lead? Or will Harper succumb to a whiplash as he did in 2004 with many voters recoiling from the prospect of a Tory victory after a serious Liberal onslaught in the last weeks of the campaign."
On June 16, 2004 in Niagara Falls, Harper boasted there were "no safe Liberal seats for the Liberals any more," and said the Tories could win a majority. Less than two weeks later, the Liberals won a minority government.
The Liberals received 36.7 per cent of the popular vote in the June 28, 2004 election. The Conservatives garnered 29.6 per cent of the vote, the NDP 15.7 per cent, the Bloc 12.4 per cent and the Greens 4.3 per cent.
Graves said the apparent Conservative breakthrough in Quebec is "especially astonishing," heralding the possible return of the Tories as a truly national party.
But he warned that because the Harper Conservatives are poised to win some seats in Quebec, the media spotlight will be on the aloof Harper more than ever before. Graves stressed that the party's growth in Quebec is inherently fragile.
With files from Robert Benzie
今天報紙有一個報導，討論會什麼選民會有這麼大的改變，報導說，以前選民不願意改變，認為換新的執政黨需要面對新的風險，現在則是寧願讓執政黨下臺，醜聞不斷，不換的風險也不小，想想台灣的處境，當初國民黨被換下來不也是如此，選民的心境果然都是一樣。
ReplyDelete嗯...我討厭政治....我覺得那都是說一套做一套....尤其在台灣的時候我更討厭....
ReplyDelete不過讓我驚訝的是原來這裡的公民只要16歲就可以投票啦!
到那裡都是一樣的,每個人都期望改變,無論是國家或家庭,總希望在改變中求進步!
ReplyDelete保守黨上台？美右翼人士振奮
ReplyDeletehttp://news.newstarnet.com/MainNews/NorthAmerica/2006_1_19_11_33_34_209.html
你們覺得加拿大的保守黨跟美國的保守黨像不像呢？由於在布希的帶領下，讓我覺得美國保守黨是拿著聖經反人權的激進派，你們即將上任的自由黨政治主張可能會這樣發展嗎？
加拿大的保守黨可能就算執政，也會是少數黨，還需要與其他黨合作，才能主導國會，在這樣的情形下，激進是不可能的，更何況加拿大的政治文化原本就溫和。
ReplyDelete加拿大的政黨政治體制與美國的總統制是非常不同，穩定多了。